{"id":7484,"date":"2024-04-04T09:23:36","date_gmt":"2024-04-04T08:23:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/?p=7484"},"modified":"2025-09-18T14:31:19","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T13:31:19","slug":"the-world-of-population-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2024\/04\/the-world-of-population-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"The World of Population Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull is-light curved-bottom\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1706\" class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-2250\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-1-scaled.jpg\" data-object-fit=\"cover\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-1-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-1-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-1-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-background-dim-0 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-cover-is-layout-flow\"><h1 class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-post-title\">The World of Population Projections<\/h1><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-post-date\"><time datetime=\"2024-04-04T09:23:36+01:00\">4 April 2024<\/time><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"lead\"><strong><strong>The UN Population Projections are generally considered to be the premier forecast for future population changes, with a pretty strong history of getting it right and the most widely cited. But there are others out there, and some would argue that these alternatives are based on stronger data and more robust modelling. In this post, originally published in February 2023, Digital and Communications Manager Ben Stallworthy takes a look.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have a previously held interest in population, you\u2019ll probably be aware of the UN Population Projections. Updated every two years, people widely regard them as the leading authority in the (admittedly small) field of population projections. They also receive the most frequent references. The UN released the last projections on <a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2022\/07\/too-fast-too-slow-just-right-the-uns-2022-population-projections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">World Population Day<\/a> in July 2022. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"728\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/PROJECTIONS-95-hi-lo-rec_0.png\" alt=\"UN Population Projections\" class=\"wp-image-1944\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/PROJECTIONS-95-hi-lo-rec_0.png 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/PROJECTIONS-95-hi-lo-rec_0-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/PROJECTIONS-95-hi-lo-rec_0-768x546.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The UN&#8217;s Past Population Growth Projections<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The UN actually have a pretty good record with past projections, specifically their median scenario. In 1968 they projected 5.44b in 1990 \u2013 the actual figure was 5.38bn (0.06bn difference). In 2000, the population projected for <a href=\"http:\/\/enerpedia.net\/images\/2\/2c\/Wpp2000h.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2020 was a little under 8bn<\/a> and we hit 7.8bn (0.2bn out).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By 2019, they projected just a one-in-four chance of the global population plateauing before 2100. Responding to the evidence of growth slowing down, in 2022 it has revised its view, now envisaging a fifty-fifty chance of population growth peaking at some point between 2080 and 2100, and possibly declining by the end of the century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, not perfect, but they have certainly stood up to scrutiny so far. This is notable given the number of variables involved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are a lot of variables, however. Demographers use different approaches to forecast how these variables will affect future population growth. There is strong consensus about our trajectory. We expect continued growth into the second half of the century, followed by a peak and eventual decline. What the numbers will be, and when that peak will occur, however, is a matter of greater debate.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>IIASA is an international research institute based near Vienna, Austria, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses its modeling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Employing a different methodology than the UN, IIASA produces a range of scenarios known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). These scenarios are based on possible developments in factors known to influence fertility rates. The primary factors considered are family planning use and education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their most recent scenarios and projections, <a href=\"https:\/\/op.europa.eu\/en\/publication-detail\/-\/publication\/e1853ba8-4444-11e8-a9f4-01aa75ed71a1\/language-en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century<\/em><\/a>, published in collaboration with the European Commission in 2018 are;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>SSP1, \u2018Sustainability\/Rapid Social Development\u2019 in which great progress in education, use of modern family planning and economic security leads to falling family size;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>SSP2, \u2018Continuation\/medium population\u2019 which is more or less our current trajectory;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>SSP3, \u2018Fragmentation\/Stalled Social Development\u2019 in which things don\u2019t go as we hope they will.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>SSP1 is lower than the UN projection, with a peak of 8.7bn, declining to 7.3bn in 2100. This is an optimistic assumption, essentially reliant on us doing better than we have done so far in things like ensuring contraception access and that more children are able to complete an education.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The more likely SSP2 shows population growth peaking at 9.7bn around 2070 and still more than 8bn by the end of the century. Under SSP3, there is no peak, with population more than 13bn and still climbing in 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington (IHME)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This research institute working in the area of global health statistics and impact evaluation at the University of Washington, Seattle, is the new kid on the block.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2\/fulltext\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Published in the Lancet in 2020<\/a>, IHME unpacks the factors driving fertility and produces a range of scenarios. Its main projection sees population growth peaking at 9.7bn in 2064 at a similar rate to the UN\u2019s projections, then declining to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Going beyond that, the difference seems dramatic. However, long-term projections come with significant uncertainty. At the top end of the main scenario\u2019s &#8220;95% interval,&#8221; IHME projects a global population of 11.8 billion in 2100\u2014more than a billion higher than the UN\u2019s current medium variant projection. Its medium projection for a \u201cworst case\u201d scenario is actually higher than IIASA\u2019s &#8211; 13.6bn by the end of the century.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The IHME scenarios include lower numbers, however. In particular, it models how meeting the <a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/un-sdgs\/\">Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)<\/a> would impact fertility. The SDGs are the UN\u2019s framework for securing human development and planetary health by 2030 \u2013 a set of 17 areas of activity, such as Zero Hunger, Gender Equality and Climate Action, each broken down into specific targets.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we achieve the SDG targets related to education and contraception, IHME projects a global population of 6.3 billion in 2100. Sadly, this \u201cif\u201d is more representative of a theoretical possibility than a likely trajectory for human progress. Indeed, a number of demographers have challenged IHME\u2019s conclusions on the basis that some of its assumptions about progress in factors driving fertility downwards are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-021-02522-6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">over-optimistic<\/a>. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1688\" height=\"1200\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/population-projections-to-2100_-COMPARISONS-rec.png\" alt=\"Population Projection Comparions to 2100\" class=\"wp-image-4698\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/population-projections-to-2100_-COMPARISONS-rec.png 1688w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/population-projections-to-2100_-COMPARISONS-rec-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/population-projections-to-2100_-COMPARISONS-rec-1024x728.png 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/population-projections-to-2100_-COMPARISONS-rec-768x546.png 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/population-projections-to-2100_-COMPARISONS-rec-1536x1092.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1688px) 100vw, 1688px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>ARE THERE OTHERS?&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Jorgen Randers is a quite genuine prophet of ecological collapse, having been an author of the hugely influential <a href=\"https:\/\/newint.org\/features\/2020\/04\/07\/long-read-hitting-population-brakes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Limits to Growth report<\/a> in 1972, which modelled future trajectories of economic activity, resource use and planetary boundaries and concluded that the then path was unsustainable.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Back then, Randers predicted a global population of 13bn by 2030 but by 2012, he had revised it substantially: \u201cThe world population will never reach nine billion people\u2026 It will peak at eight billion in 2040, and then decline.\u201d The level and timing of that peak are at odds with almost every other projection of population growth.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today though, even Randers no longer endorses it. In 2021, his projection estimated a peak of around 9.5 billion people in 2050, followed by a steep decline to around 6 billion by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iema.net\/articles\/jorgan-randers-on-being-pushed-to-the-limits?t=156570\">end of the century<\/a>. This would return the population to the same level it was at the start of the century, just twenty-odd years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>WHO&#8217;s most likely to be right?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>People widely use the UN\u2019s projections because of their longevity and, as we\u2019ve seen, their relative accuracy.&nbsp;&nbsp;They remain the most authoritative and useful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> The main messages to take from all the projections are these:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The population is still rising and will likely continue to do so until the second half of the century<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We are unlikely to have a lower population by 2100 than we did in 2000. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We have the power to change how big the peak in numbers will be, and how soon it happens.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It is critical for people and the planet that we achieve the lowest of those projections. But that can&#8217;t and won&#8217;t happen unless we become more effective and successful. We must ensure that everyone can lead a safe, secure life with freedom, choices, and opportunities. Delivering the <a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/solutions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">positive, empowerng solutions<\/a> which will bend the population curve down needs commitment and hard work.  There can be no resting on our laurels, that work must continue.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-share\"><a class=\"fb-share\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpopulationmatters.org%2Fnews%2F2024%2F04%2Fthe-world-of-population-projections%2F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><div><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\"><path d=\"M400 32H48A48 48 0 0 0 0 80v352a48 48 0 0 0 48 48h137.25V327.69h-63V256h63v-54.64c0-62.15 37-96.48 93.67-96.48 27.14 0 55.52 4.84 55.52 4.84v61h-31.27c-30.81 0-40.42 19.12-40.42 38.73V256h68.78l-11 71.69h-57.78V480H400a48 48 0 0 0 48-48V80a48 48 0 0 0-48-48z\"><\/path><\/svg> Share<\/div><\/a><a class=\"tw-share\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpopulationmatters.org%2Fnews%2F2024%2F04%2Fthe-world-of-population-projections%2F&amp;text=The%20World%20of%20Population%20Projections\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><div><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\"><path d=\"M459.37 151.716c.325 4.548.325 9.097.325 13.645 0 138.72-105.583 298.558-298.558 298.558-59.452 0-114.68-17.219-161.137-47.106 8.447.974 16.568 1.299 25.34 1.299 49.055 0 94.213-16.568 130.274-44.832-46.132-.975-84.792-31.188-98.112-72.772 6.498.974 12.995 1.624 19.818 1.624 9.421 0 18.843-1.3 27.614-3.573-48.081-9.747-84.143-51.98-84.143-102.985v-1.299c13.969 7.797 30.214 12.67 47.431 13.319-28.264-18.843-46.781-51.005-46.781-87.391 0-19.492 5.197-37.36 14.294-52.954 51.655 63.675 129.3 105.258 216.365 109.807-1.624-7.797-2.599-15.918-2.599-24.04 0-57.828 46.782-104.934 104.934-104.934 30.213 0 57.502 12.67 76.67 33.137 23.715-4.548 46.456-13.32 66.599-25.34-7.798 24.366-24.366 44.833-46.132 57.827 21.117-2.273 41.584-8.122 60.426-16.243-14.292 20.791-32.161 39.308-52.628 54.253z\"><\/path><\/svg> Tweet<\/div><\/a><a class=\"li-share\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/shareArticle?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpopulationmatters.org%2Fnews%2F2024%2F04%2Fthe-world-of-population-projections%2F&amp;text=The%20World%20of%20Population%20Projections\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><div><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\"><path d=\"M416 32H31.9C14.3 32 0 46.5 0 64.3v383.4C0 465.5 14.3 480 31.9 480H416c17.6 0 32-14.5 32-32.3V64.3c0-17.8-14.4-32.3-32-32.3zM135.4 416H69V202.2h66.5V416zm-33.2-243c-21.3 0-38.5-17.3-38.5-38.5S80.9 96 102.2 96c21.2 0 38.5 17.3 38.5 38.5 0 21.3-17.2 38.5-38.5 38.5zm282.1 243h-66.4V312c0-24.8-.5-56.7-34.5-56.7-34.6 0-39.9 27-39.9 54.9V416h-66.4V202.2h63.7v29.2h.9c8.9-16.8 30.6-34.5 62.9-34.5 67.2 0 79.7 44.3 79.7 101.9V416z\"><\/path><\/svg> Post<\/div><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull has-light-blue-background-color has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Related content<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-grid grid grid-3\">\n\t\t<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-post-teaser\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/the-facts-numbers\/\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3>Population: the numbers<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"288\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-768x288.jpg\" class=\"wp-image-1736\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-768x288.jpg 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-300x113.jpg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-1024x384.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-1536x576.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/img>\n\t\t\t\t<p>Global population is still rising by more than 80 million\u00a0a year &#8211; and is most likely to continue rising for the rest of this century unless we take action. Find out where the growth is happening and why.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-post-teaser\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2025\/08\/after-the-spike-and-the-myth-of-depopulation\/\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3>After the Spike and the Myth of Depopulation<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"513\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ryoji-iwata-IBaVuZsJJTo-unsplash-768x513.jpg\" class=\"wp-image-16585\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ryoji-iwata-IBaVuZsJJTo-unsplash-768x513.jpg 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ryoji-iwata-IBaVuZsJJTo-unsplash-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ryoji-iwata-IBaVuZsJJTo-unsplash-1024x684.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ryoji-iwata-IBaVuZsJJTo-unsplash-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ryoji-iwata-IBaVuZsJJTo-unsplash-2048x1367.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/img>\n\t\t\t\t<p>After the Spike by Dean Spears and Michael Geruso focuses on depopulation, but its arguments are built on shaky ground, stirring up fear, rather than focusing on the facts. What\u2019s&#8230;<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-post-teaser\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2024\/03\/global-resources-dwindling-as-demand-rises\/\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3>Global Resources Dwindling as Demand Rises<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/denis-agati-5KruT7JCFE0-unsplash-768x512.jpg\" class=\"wp-image-12184\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/denis-agati-5KruT7JCFE0-unsplash-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/denis-agati-5KruT7JCFE0-unsplash-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/denis-agati-5KruT7JCFE0-unsplash-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/denis-agati-5KruT7JCFE0-unsplash-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/denis-agati-5KruT7JCFE0-unsplash-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/img>\n\t\t\t\t<p>In the last 50 years resource use has tripled, just as the world\u2019s population has grown from 3.6 billion people in 1970 to over 8 billion today.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The UN is generally considered the top dog of population projections but are there any viable alternatives?","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":2235,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[22],"class_list":["post-7484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-world_population"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The World of Population Projections - Population Matters<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The UN&#039;s population projections model population growth to the end of the century. 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