{"id":10904,"date":"2023-11-02T15:24:12","date_gmt":"2023-11-02T15:24:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/?p=10904"},"modified":"2024-07-18T14:27:01","modified_gmt":"2024-07-18T13:27:01","slug":"the-mystery-of-demographic-momentum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/news\/2023\/11\/the-mystery-of-demographic-momentum\/","title":{"rendered":"The Mystery of Demographic Momentum\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull curved-bottom\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-background-dim-0 has-background-dim\"><\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1732\" height=\"1154\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Transport-crowds-on-escalator_resized.jpeg\" class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-post-image\" alt=\"Transport - crowds on escalator\" data-object-fit=\"cover\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Transport-crowds-on-escalator_resized.jpeg 1732w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Transport-crowds-on-escalator_resized-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Transport-crowds-on-escalator_resized-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Transport-crowds-on-escalator_resized-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Transport-crowds-on-escalator_resized-1536x1023.jpeg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1732px) 100vw, 1732px\" \/><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-cover-is-layout-flow\"><h1 class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-post-title\">The Mystery of Demographic Momentum\u00a0<\/h1><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-post-date\"><time datetime=\"2023-11-02T15:24:12+00:00\">2 November 2023<\/time><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"lead\"><em>Ever wondered why populations often continue to grow even when a country&#8217;s birth rate falls? <\/em>Meet <em>Demographic Momentum, a little-discussed phenomenon that&#8217;s essential to understand if we&#8217;re going to get to grips with population growth. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Demographic momentum (also known as population momentum) is like the hidden engine that drives population growth. Even if a country&#8217;s birth rates and family sizes drop, its population can still keep growing due to&nbsp;the age structure of the population. This means that the impact of smaller family sizes can sometimes take many decades to be reflected in population numbers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ages and stages<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Every society obviously has people of all ages, from newborn babies to the very elderly. But the key players in demographic momentum are the young adults, those in their childbearing years. When there&#8217;s a large number of these young adults, even if they have fewer kids each on average (known as fertility rate), the sheer number of potential parents can mean more babies in total and ongoing <a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/the-facts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">population growth<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means that countries with fertility rates below <a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/glossary\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&#8220;replacement level&#8221;<\/a> often continue to experience natural increases for some time. This is most common where birth rates have recently been high &#8211; when the babies born in that period reach adulthood they increase the number of families.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"547\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Fertility-rate-.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10907\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Fertility-rate-.png 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Fertility-rate--300x214.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, we can see this clearly in countries like India. The average fertility rate (the number of births per woman) has reduced significantly in recent decades, from 5.9 in 1950 to below 2 today (2.1 is generally considered the replacement rate and, all other factors being equal, would eventually lead to a steady population). However, India\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/world-population\/india-population\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">population is still growing by over 10 million each year<\/a> due to having a large number of young people (and people living longer), and earlier this year it overtook China as the most populous country in the world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Demographic momentum is even more powerful in Africa.  About half of the population of Africa is currently under 18. In most African countries fertility rates are coming down, but the sheer number of people moving into their child-bearing years will ensure a large number of births for decades to come. The UN projects that the continent will be where half of all global population growth takes place up to 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, the United Nations <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/development\/desa\/pd\/sites\/www.un.org.development.desa.pd\/files\/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">has concluded that<\/a> &#8220;two-thirds of the projected increase in global population through 2050 will be driven by the momentum of past<br>growth&#8221;. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What to do about Demographic Momentum<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, there&#8217;s nothing to be done about it per se. Eventually, a fertility rate below 2.1 will lead to a population shrinking. But we should understand that sustainably reducing the number of people on Earth can only be a good thing for people and planet. Governments and policymakers should focus on stabilising our population and, eventually, achieving a sustainable reduction and the <a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/solutions\/\">solutions<\/a> to getting there are clear:   &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Family Planning:<\/strong> Promoting family planning services and providing access to contraception can help individuals make informed choices about family size.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Education:<\/strong> Investing in education can empower women to make choices about their reproductive health and can contribute to lower fertility rates.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Healthcare:<\/strong> Access to quality healthcare, including maternal and child health services, plays a significant role in reducing birth rates.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Empowerment:<\/strong> Where women and girls are empowered and can choose what happens to their bodies, fertility rates inevitably fall. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Global justice:<\/strong> Escaping poverty&nbsp;is not just a fundamental human right but a vital way to bring birth rates down.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1688\" height=\"1200\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/FERTILITY-RATES-1960-2022-rec-1.png\" alt=\"Fertility Rates 1960-2022 (2022)\" class=\"wp-image-1903\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/FERTILITY-RATES-1960-2022-rec-1.png 1688w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/FERTILITY-RATES-1960-2022-rec-1-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/FERTILITY-RATES-1960-2022-rec-1-1024x728.png 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/FERTILITY-RATES-1960-2022-rec-1-768x546.png 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/FERTILITY-RATES-1960-2022-rec-1-1536x1092.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1688px) 100vw, 1688px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Future Outlook<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Demographic momentum holds significant implications for the future. As fertility rates fall below replacement level all over the world, countries with high levels of momentum must manage their growing populations but plan for the future, while others face the real, but not insurmountable, challenges of an <a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/resources\/silver-linings-not-silver-burdens-executive-summary\/\">ageing one<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a world where we face complex and critical challenges such as climate change, understanding this phenomenon is crucial. It&#8217;s not just a numbers game; it&#8217;s about shaping the future and making informed decisions for the well-being of everyone.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-share\"><a class=\"fb-share\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpopulationmatters.org%2Fnews%2F2023%2F11%2Fthe-mystery-of-demographic-momentum%2F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><div> Share<\/div><\/a><a class=\"tw-share\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpopulationmatters.org%2Fnews%2F2023%2F11%2Fthe-mystery-of-demographic-momentum%2F&amp;text=The%20Mystery%20of%20Demographic%20Momentum%C2%A0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><div> Tweet<\/div><\/a><a class=\"li-share\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/shareArticle?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpopulationmatters.org%2Fnews%2F2023%2F11%2Fthe-mystery-of-demographic-momentum%2F&amp;text=The%20Mystery%20of%20Demographic%20Momentum%C2%A0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><div> Post<\/div><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull has-light-blue-background-color has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Related content<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-grid grid grid-3\">\n\t\t<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-post-teaser\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/lp-the-facts\/\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3>The facts<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"288\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/chuttersnap-1062454-unsplash-768x288.jpeg\" class=\"wp-image-1065\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/chuttersnap-1062454-unsplash-768x288.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/chuttersnap-1062454-unsplash-300x113.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/chuttersnap-1062454-unsplash-1024x384.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/chuttersnap-1062454-unsplash-1536x576.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/chuttersnap-1062454-unsplash.jpeg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/img>\n\t\t\t\t<p>Our population has become so large that the Earth is struggling to cope. Right now, we add more than 80 million people a year.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-post-teaser\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/join\/\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3>Join<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"288\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/peter-chamberlain-398960-unsplash-768x288.jpeg\" class=\"wp-image-1114\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/peter-chamberlain-398960-unsplash-768x288.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/peter-chamberlain-398960-unsplash-300x113.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/peter-chamberlain-398960-unsplash-1024x384.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/peter-chamberlain-398960-unsplash-1536x576.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/peter-chamberlain-398960-unsplash.jpeg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/img>\n\t\t\t\t<p>Join the movement to create a better future!<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"wp-block-popmat-post-teaser\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/the-facts-numbers\/\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3>Population: the numbers<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"288\" src=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-768x288.jpg\" class=\"wp-image-1736\" srcset=\"https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-768x288.jpg 768w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-300x113.jpg 300w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-1024x384.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0-1536x576.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/populationmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bigstock-Moscow-Russia-September-208762624_0.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/img>\n\t\t\t\t<p>Global population is still rising by more than 80 million\u00a0a year &#8211; and is most likely to continue rising for the rest of this century unless we take action. Find out where the growth is happening and why.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ever wondered why populations often continue to grow even when a country&#8217;s birth rate falls? Meet Demographic Momentum, a little-discussed phenomenon that&#8217;s essential to understand if we&#8217;re going to get to grips with population growth. ","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":915,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[49,22],"class_list":["post-10904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-demography","tag-world_population"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Demographic Momentum - Population Matters<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ever wondered why populations often continue to grow even when the birth rate falls? 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